Optimism watch: S&P 500 Index and major global events

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If you have a long time horizon, you can survive just about anything. At least, that’s the implication of a graph I looked at today.

Fidelity Investments is showing off a graph called “S&P 500 Index & Major Global Events” in “Putting Short-Term Market Turmoil in Perspective: U.S. stocks have proven resilient over the long term.”

It’s a graph of the S&P 500 index with major events from JFK’s assassination in 1963 to this year’s collapse of Bear Stearns.

The article concludes:  “U.S. stocks have proven to be resilient over the long term. A $10,000 hypothetical investment in a diversified mix of large-cap domestic stocks at the start of 1963 would have been worth more than $865,000 at the end of June 2008.”

$865,000 is a nice big number. But how many investors think in terms of a 45-year time horizon? 

On the other hand, maybe that’s the point. A 45-year time horizon isn’t just for college kids. Even middle-aged folks may live another 45 years.

Does this graph give you comfort? 

"The Top Seven B2B Communications Mistakes"

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“The Top Seven B2B Communications Mistakes” offers some useful advice for investment and wealth management marketers, whether you’re targeting businesses or individuals.


For example:

  1. Your content should reflect your prospects’ top concerns.
  2. “Don’t sell. Inform.”

When I review investment and wealth management firms’ content, I often find it focused on them, not on their clients. It takes a mighty motivated buyer to plow through content that takes that approach.

As for informing instead of selling, I don’t think you can follow this rule 100% of the time. But many firms could benefit from taking this advice more frequently.

"Thought Leadership: Are You Making It or Faking It?"

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Plenty of investment and wealth management firms try to distinguish themselves as so-called “thought leaders.” Many will fail.

“Thought Leadership: Are You Making It or Faking It?” by Fiona Czerniawska says that clients seek:

1. Something relevant to challenges they face
2. Something new and different
3. Something that is supported by hard evidence – a single case study or recycling second-hand ideas is not enough

When you write white papers, make sure you show how your ideas can impact the things your clients care about. If you fail at this, your reader may not progress beyond your first paragraph.

If you can also say something different about a topic that’s in the news, that’s even better.

Don’t use your white paper to pitch your product or service. As Czerniawska advises her consulting firm clients: 

In this context, a call-to-action – perhaps some benchmarking data for clients to compare themselves to or a tool for evaluating their performance – is more likely to result in consulting work in the long-term because it doesn’t try to sell too unsubtly in the short-term.

Optimism watch: "Could Bear Talk Be a Contrary Signal?"

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“Doing the reverse of the crowd has often worked well,” as New York Times columnist Floyd Norris points out in “Could Bear Talk Be a Contrary Signal?“

So the fact that consumers feel unusually gloomy about the stock market, according to the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence report, may bode well for stocks.

More than half of those polled expect stocks to decline over the next 12 months. However, as Norris reports:

In the past, there have been only six market cycles when the proportion of bears reached 36 percent. Five of them were excellent times to buy stocks, and the other one was followed by a decent return.

If you only want to read an optimistic spin on these numbers, do NOT read Mark Hulbert’s “The Stars Have Yet To Align For Stocks,” also published in The New York Times.

This blog post is part of a recently launched “Optimism watch” series on this blog.

Warren Buffett on compliance officer

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This is a great quote from Warren Buffett.

Everyone must be his own compliance officer. That means everything you do can be put on the front page of the newspaper, and there will be nothing that cannot stand up to scrutiny.

Jim Ware of Focus Consulting Group cited this quote in his talk on ethics to the Boston Security Analysts Society. I tracked down the wording in a New York Times article.

Optimism watch: The case for maximum pessimism

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Is the stock market getting you down? I’m starting an “Optimism watch” on this blog. 

In “Optimism watch” posts, I’ll highlight the case that other writers make for you and your clients to hang in there.

Let’s start with a quote from “Nowhere to Hide: Foreign Funds are Falling, Too,” from Morningstar’s Bridget Hughes.

…before you fall into deep despair, I’d remind you that the late Sir John Templeton made a highly successful career investing where he saw “maximum pessimism.” We’ve been here before. Markets are cyclical. Keeping a truly long-term perspective (10 years or more) can be liberating, and you may realize this is a time to add to your holdings.

Related posts on the Investment Writing blog:

ACLI promises better disclosures about annuities

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The American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) is promising to improve disclosure about annuities in cooperation with the National Association for Variable Annuities (NAVA), according to “User-Friendly Annuity Documents Planned,” an article on the Financial Advisor website.

Maybe they could start with the so-called “easy to read tip sheet” for seniors on their website. It sports plenty of jargon. Like “current credited interest rate”–a term that I couldn’t even find in the ACLI’s glossary. The same goes for “subaccount.”

The ACLI and NAVA are tackling a tough job. I wish them good luck.

How I ghostwrite your financial article

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Too busy to write an article? Hiring a ghostwriter is a great way to produce a compelling article in a short amount of time.

Ghostwriting is one of my specialties. Please read on for an explanation of how you and I can work together.

My ghostwriting process typically includes these steps:
1. Topic identification
2. Interview of expert(s)
3. Outline
4. First draft
5. Revision, if necessary
6. Completion

1. Topic identification

You and I will discuss your topic over the phone. It’s helpful if you can answer these questions:
•    Why do you want to write an article and what do you want it to accomplish?
•    What is your topic?
•    Who is your audience and what do you want them to do after they read your article?
•    Why will your readers care about your article topic?
•    What problem will your article solve for your readers?
•    What are the three main points you’d like to make?
•    Where will the article appear?
•    What word count are you targeting? For example, a ghostwritten newspaper article often runs 600-1,000 words and a double-spaced, typed page runs about 200-250 words.
•    By when do you need the article completed?
•    What is your review and approval process?

Following this interview, I typically send you a letter of agreement that describes the scope of the work we will do together.

2. Interview of expert(s)

Most of the articles that I ghostwrite are based on an interview with a single expert. Sometimes multiple experts and outside research are involved.

Prior to the interview, I will send you a list of questions to think about. If that makes you think of useful exhibits or other data, it’s helpful for you to send them to me prior to our interview.

The interview will be conducted by phone and tape recorded, so I can refer back to it.

3. Outline

Following our interview, I will typically send you a robust outline, so you can agree to the direction of the article before I send you a complete draft. The outline will incorporate my questions and requests for additional information needed to flesh out the article.

4. First draft

After you respond to my questions and approve the outline, I will send you an article following the outline.

5. Revisions

My clients are often satisfied with my initial draft. However, sometimes changes are needed. Our letter of agreement will specify the scope of revisions included in your project fee.

6. Completion

When the process is complete, you’ve got an article you can publish under your name. It’s ready to go!

 

Cheer up your clients with views of Dallas Fed authors

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Has the economy got your clients feeling blue? 

Cheer them up with some statistics from “How Are We Doing,” an article by W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.


For example, over the past 20 years, “in terms of time worked at the average pay rate, the real cost of a 12-item basket of basic foods has hardly budged.” You can see that for yourself in Figure 3, “What Work Buys.”


I learned about this article from “Cheer up — these are the good old days,” a Boston Globe column by Jeff Jacoby.

Are buy-side analysts inferior?

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Buy-side analysts aren’t as good as sell-side analysts. At least not in the opinion of some researchers.

“…buy-side analysts made more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell side,” according to “Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts,” an article by Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, and Craig Chapman of Harvard Business School in the July/August issue of the Financial Analysts Journal.  

“The performance differences appear to be partially explained by the buy-side firm’s greater retention of poorly performing analysts and by differences in the performance benchmarks used to evaluate buy-side and sell-side analysts.”

Do you buy the authors’ conclusions?  

As of August 19, there’s a poll on the right-hand side of this blog that will let you vote on the accuracy of buy-side vs. sell-side analysts. It’s a temporary poll, so vote now! If you think the issues are too complex to be addressed by a poll, please add your comments below.